Arizona’s current economic outlook is promising. The state is continuing to grow regarding job numbers, income, and indeed even the number of residents at a much faster pace than the national average. The pace of growth, however, is slowing down. A part of this can be attributed to the fact that the population – globally, not just in Arizona – is aging. As baby boomers grow older, the nature of the economy must change to support the bulk of the population.
The Employment Outlook for the Next 30 Years
Even as growth is slowing down, many predictions suggest that over the next 30 years Arizona will continue to broadly outpace the rest of the nation in terms of growth rate, although incomes may not skyrocket as they have in the last few years. We can likely expect to see incomes grow at a rate that outpaces inflation, which means that Arizona residents will have the opportunity to enjoy comfortable lifestyles, but as a metric of prosperity per-capita income is one area where Arizona may lose out. With this growth comes new job opportunities and the need to hire for management positions to help businesses grow smartly.
Arizona is proving to be a hub for employment and economic growth in some industries – but in terms of knowledge industries and skilled jobs, it is starting to fall behind. In the 1940s, Arizona enjoyed a position near the top of the league tables when it came to four-year college attainment. Today, it sees attainment that is far lower than the national average. As long as the level of educational attainment remains low, this means that the income gap will continue to grow. However, this also means that there are many opportunities for Arizona residents who have managed a high level of college attainment.
Lee McPheters of Arizona State University explained that between October 2016 and October 2017, Arizona added 32,000 jobs. The year before that, the state added 65,000 jobs. He predicted that in the following year, unemployment could fall to just 4.2 percent, which is a huge achievement compared to many other parts of the world. Arizona job growth of 2 to 2.5 percent, steadily, seems to be the new status quo.
The Housing Construction Boom
One area that McPheters predicts will see some strength is housing. While in Phoenix there are fewer permit applications now than there were a year ago, the Arizona construction industry is one that is likely to see more growth overall – with around 32,580 new houses – double the number built five years ago. Building those properties will require skilled workers.
A Time Rich, Older Population
As the population of Arizona grows older, there will be a need for more health care services. Healthcare is one sector that has grown significantly over the last few years, and demand is going to continue to grow. Another sector that will see growth – especially as the population increases, is leisure and hospitality.
Serving these, and serving the growing demand for construction, will mean that transport and logistics sectors will also grow, although at a smaller rate. The Department of Administration projected 56,000 new jobs in 2015, and the real world figure was 65,000 – so any projections for the future can be seen only as conservative estimates. It could well be that growth will far exceed the figures that are being projected for 2018.
It is unlikely that we will see a contraction in any sector, although some, such as professional services, are not growing at as fast a rate as others. The information sector, for example, has been projected over the last few years to remain almost flat. It’s easy to understand why, given that the strengths of Arizona lie in other sectors. There is a shortage of skilled knowledge workers, so most companies that specialize in that sector would look to other parts of the country for their base.
Arizona is in a healthy position, employment-wise, and the prospects for young professionals, skilled construction workers, and dedicated hospitality workers are bright. The economy is in a sound position, and those who are willing to work hard and pursue their dreams have a good chance of doing so, in whatever sector they specialize. As companies take advantage of this growth, they need help recruiting for open positions. If you are hiring managers and executives, let us help find candidates with the right resume and the right alignment with your mission and goals. https://recruiterie.com/executive-search/